April 5, 2019 | 12:30 am By
Victor V. Saulon Sub-Editor
THE DEPARTMENT of
Energy (DoE) has kept its power demand forecast for the dry season despite four
straight days of “yellow” alert notices this week, saying the thinning power
reserves did not change its expectations in the coming months.
However, distribution
utility Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) expects an “upward pressure” in the price
of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the monthly bill of consumers for March and
April.
“Sapat ang
supply ng kuryente for our summer outlook (Electricity supply is
sufficient for our summer outlook),” said Energy Undersecretary William Felix
B. Fuentebella in a press conference at the department’s head office in Taguig
City on Thursday.
“I don’t think it will
change a lot [from our] present outlook. What we are proposing is a weekly
update on how we can adjust our actions to address the situation,” he added,
describing the yellow alert notices as “isolated” cases.
A month ago, the DoE
said it expected Luzon to reach a peak demand of 11,403 megawatts (MW) in May.
The March-June period, when the country will experience a “weak” El Niño, is
expected to see a 30% reduction in hydropower capacity to 983-1,776 MW.
In the Visayas, power
demand is expected to peak towards the end of the year at 2,299 MW, hence, the
weather aberration should have minimal impact. Hydropower’s share in the area’s
capacity mix is minimal at about 0.6%.
In Mindanao, peak
demand is also towards yearend at 2,130 MW. Despite the possible significant
effect of El Niño due to the 27.5% share of hydro in its capacity mix, the grid
will remain stable due to the operation of large coal-fired power plants.
Lawrence S. Fernandez,
Meralco vice-president and head of utility economics, said he expects the power
generation charge for March to increase because of the three days of yellow
alert notices during the month. Yellow alert notices are issued by system
operator National Grid Corporation of the Philippines when reserve power thins
as a result of the unscheduled outages of power plants.
This prompts Meralco to
turn to the wholesale electricity spot market, where electricity prices are
higher, to cover the deficiency.
Every time there is a
reduction in reserves there is also pressure on the electricity prices at the
spot market, said Andrea May T. Caguete, assistant manager for market
information modelling at the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the
Philippines.
NGCP is required to
maintain a regulating reserve, which is ideally equivalent to four percent of
the demand for the hour. The buffer covers small variations during normal
operations.
A second layer or
contingency reserve requirement is also allocated to immediately answer any
reduction in supply when the largest power generating unit online — the 647 MW
coal-fired power plant in Sual, Pangasinan — fails to deliver.
A dispatchable reserve
— equivalent to the capacity of the second biggest operating plant, the second
647-MW unit of the Sual plant — is also readily available to replenish lost
contingency reserve.
NGCP issues a “yellow
alert” notice when the total of all reserves is less than the capacity of the
largest plant online, which for the Luzon grid, is 647 MW. It issues a “red
alert” notice when the contingency reserve is zero or a generation deficiency
exists.
Meralco said its
invokes its interruptible load program (ILP) when a red alert notice is issued.
The scheme requires those in the program to voluntarily stop sourcing power
temporarily from the utility and activate their own power generation sets.
The company said a
total of 156 companies with a de-loading capacity of 546 MW have enlisted in
ILP as of April 1.
A red alert notice has
not yet been issued so far this year.
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