February 20, 2020 | 11:09 pm
THE National
Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) and the Independent Electricity Market
Operator of the Philippines, Inc. (IEMOP) separately raised concerns yesterday
about power supply in May.
“The worst-case
projections (are) not good,” NGCP Spokesperson Cynthia P. Alabanza told
reporters in a briefing Thursday.
She said the “usage
habits” in the Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao grids have been changing as observed
by NGCP. Power demand in Luzon usually peaks in May, the hottest month of the
year. During the day, demand is highest at 2 p.m., the hottest hour of the day.
This year, power demand is expected to peak at 12,285 megawatts (MW) in Luzon
in May, 2,419 MW in Visayas also in May, and 2,278 MW in Mindanao in November,
according to the NGCP. Thin electricity supply is expected between April to
June even with an expected 700 MW capacity from new power plants.
The NGCP said the Luzon
grid needs around 4% of peak demand or around 491 MW in regulating power to
stabilize the grid. It also needs to maintain a reserve equivalent to the
largest plant online, usually equivalent to 647 MW, as contingency power to
support the grid in case of an emergency power plant shutdown.
Should the net
operating margin fall below these numbers, NGCP issues a yellow alert. If the
power supply falls below the system peak demand, it issues a red alert, which
means rotating power interruptions may be implemented to protect the integrity
of the power grid.
“Normally, Luzon and
Visayas, which are interconnected, can help each other,” Ms. Alabanza said,
referring to the two grids exporting power to each other because their power
demand peaks at different hours of the day.
Visayas and Mindanao
used to register peak power demand during the day at 7 p.m., and in November to
December over the course of the year. The grids in Luzon and the Visayas are
interconnected, while the Visayas are expected to be linked to Mindanao by
year’s end.
However, Ms. Alabanza
said heaviest usage in Cebu and Visayas has shifted towards the dry season, and
at 2 p.m. during the day.
“Why is that of concern
to NGCP? Because then nag-aagawan na sila (the grids are competing) for
the same resources at the same time,” she said.
Separately, Robinson P. Descanzo, IEMOP chief operating officer and head of
trading operations, said in a briefing Thursday that May and June could be the
worst period for power supply this year.
He said after Easter,
which this year falls on the second week of April, power supply will be “barely
enough” to cover the requirements of the system. But in May to June, supply is
expected to be insufficient to cover the system’s reserve requirement.
The deficiency could
give rise to a new round of yellow and red alert notices during these months.
Mr. Descanzo said the
worst-case scenario would be when power plants go on forced outage in May or
June. He said if 1,200 MW is lost because of unscheduled shutdowns, the average
electricity prices at the spot market could jump to as high as P5.50 per
kilowatt-hour (kWh) in May and P6.00 per kWh in June.
The estimated increase
compares with the low prices seen in January and February at P3.03 per kWh and
P3.47 per kWh, respectively.
Ms. Alabanza said the
deficiency “underlines the need for more investment in new power plants.” She
said the fastest to be built are solar farms whose power supply is
intermittent.
“The ones that are
baseload tend to be longer in coming,” she said.
Mr. Descanzo only one
big power plant is expected to come online this year — the first 668 MW unit of
GNPower Dinginin Ltd. Co. in Bataan, which is set for launch in June.
“After Dinginin walang
papasok na baseload na malalaki (After Diningin, no big baseload
power plant will come online),” he said. — Victor V. Saulon
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