Philippine Energy Plan Preview Bared

Manila Bulletin
By MYRNA M. VELASCO
January 26, 2012, 11:06pm


MANILA, Philippines — An average annual economic expansion of 1.5-percent and population growth of 1.8-percent will be the guiding parameters being factored in by the Department of Energy (DoE) in its crafting of the Philippine Energy Plan.


Energy Secretary Rene D. Almendras noted this will be the econometrics to be employed in the country’s energy planning in the short term or until 2016. No specific elasticity ratio has been provided yet by the department, although it indicated that they are not expecting drastic growth in energy demand given current developments in the economy.


“The country’s energy demand is projected to increase by an average annual rate of 3.5-percent for 2011-2016, and by 2.7-percent from 2011 to 2030,” the energy chief stressed. The department used 2010 figures as reference for the updating of the PEP.


Under the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA), the energy department is mandated to submit the updated PEP and Power Development Plan (PDP) to the Joint Congressional Power Commission every 15th of September annually.


The last time that consultation with stakeholders on the PEP crafting was in 2009; and no such plan has been circulated in the industry in the past three years already – aside from the per-segment supply-demand outlook occasionally being presented to stakeholders in investment forums.


Almendras though is giving his word to the industry that they will work on the energy sector plan to comply with the law and to apprise stakeholders of the needed investments as well as on the various industries’ growth projections.


He emphasized that the department is “in the process of updating the energy demand projections for the planning horizon covering 2011 to 2030 based on economic parameters,” citing the initially-released macroeconomic growth forecasts of the National Economic Development Authority; as well as the population climb foreseen by the National Statistics Office.


To keep up with the longer planning paradigm of other energy markets, the energy chief noted that his department “has yet to undertake demand forecasting until 2050 timeframe.”


In the next five years, the energy department sees a substantial incline in the energy demand of the transport sector; while “output-producing sectors such as industry, commercial and agriculture will exhibit increased shares to total energy demand.”


The residential sector, on one hand, is seen registering “a reduction in its contribution to total demand over the planning period”; while the reverse will happen in the industrial sector. (MMV)