By
Lenie Lectura - April 11, 2018
Leaders
in the power sector say there is “sufficient” supply to meet the demand for
electricity during these summer months despite the scheduled shutdown of a
number of power plants. But can they assure there will be no electricity
shortage if demand shoots up higher than expected, or if major power plants
suddenly conk out?
“Power supply this
summer, based on our latest evaluation, is sufficient to meet demand,” assured
Alfonso G. Cusi, secretary of the Department of Energy (DOE).
In its latest forecast,
the agency said this year’s peak demand would reach 10,561 megawatts (MW) from
2017’s actual demand of 10,054 MW, pegging growth rate at 5.04 percent.
The National Grid Corp.
of the Philippines (NGCP) shares the same data. Based on second-quarter reserve
profile, peak demand in the Luzon grid will occur during the May 11 to
17 week increasing by around 5 percent, or by 504 MW, from
10,054 MW in 2017 to 10,561 this 2018.
The load increment for
the past five years indicates the growing trend of peak power demands occurring
in the month of May: 8,304 MW on May 8, 2013; 8,717 MW on May 21, 2014; 8,928
MW on May 21, 2015; 9,726 MW on May 3, 2016; and 10,054 MW on May 9, 2017.
The same data also
showed that capacity during the said period is expected to reach 11,993 MW. As
such, gross reserve is expected to remain at 1,432 MW.
The following week—or
from May 18 to 24—power reserves are expected to go down to 1,274 MW, the
lowest expected during the summer months. During this period, the capacity is
recorded at 11,644 MW, while demand could hit 10,370MW, which leaves reserves
at 1,274 MW.
Plant shutdown
Based on data, DOE
Assistant Secretary Redentor Delola assured that “we have enough reserves”
even if a number of power plants are scheduled for shutdown.
Some of the power
plants in Luzon that will go offline are Pagbilao 1 (367.5 MW), from April
1 to 30, and Pagbilao 2 from June 6 to July 5.
Ilijan 1 (600 MW) will
also be out on most days of April until early May. Team Energy Corp. owns and
operates the Pagbilao power facility in the province of Quezon. It also owns a
20-percent stake in the 1,200-MW Ilijan gas plant in Pangasinan.
GN Power 1 (300 MW)
will not be operational for a couple of weeks in June and July.
This indicates that
over 1,600 MW of power-generating capacity will be shaved off in Luzon mainly
due to scheduled plant shutdowns.
“This is based on what
we are aware of, mainly of the plants which we are contracted,” Meralco Utility
Economics Head Lawrence Fernandez said in an interview.
Meralco accounts for
about 75 percent of total electricity sales in Luzon and about 55 percent
nationwide. Meralco, Fernandez added, similarly forecasts peak demand in its
service area to grow by around 5 percent, from last year’s 6,973 MW to 7,328 MW
this year.
The NGCP said it
continues its coordination with power-generating plants to ensure all
maintenance shutdowns will not take place during peak periods, particularly at
the height of summer when yellow alert notice is often issued.
A yellow alert means
reserves are not enough to cover the largest running generating unit at the
time, but does not necessarily lead to power outages. For the Luzon grid, this
is usually 647 MW, or one unit of the Sual power plant.
Still, Laban Konsyumer
Inc. (LKI) reminded the DOE to strictly monitor the technical conditions
and maintenance of power plants.
“The DOE should not be
complacent on what they call ambient heat that causes power outages in summer.
Consumers are always surprised with a yellow alert,” LKI President Victor
Dimaguiba said in an interview.
The agency, he also
pointed out, should inform the consumers of the real reasons for any unexpected
power outage. “The DOE should ensure that there are no perception in the eyes
of the consumers that there exist a collusion among power plants. This happens
as a seemingly regular cycle during summer. The DOE should also strictly
monitor the WESM [Wholesale Electricity Spot Market] prices if collusion is
happening in the spot market. We don’t get data from the
regulator. Consumers deserve to be informed,” Dimaguiba added.
No worries?
Based on data presented
by the DOE, NGCP and Meralco, Luzon indeed has enough reserves, even as the
plants mentioned will proceed with their scheduled shutdowns. In addition,
there are new power plants coming in.
“On the summer months,
as projected, we will not have any problem as long as the new power plants will
come in and run,” Delola said.
An additional 570 MW of
new capacity will be added to the Luzon grid. This will come from Pagbilao
Energy Corp.’s (PEC) 420-MW plant in Quezon and the 150-MW second unit of SMC
Consolidated Power Corp.’s power plant in Limay, Bataan.
PEC is a joint venture
betwen TPEC Holdings Corp. and Therma Power Inc., wholly owned subsidiaries of
TeaM Energy and Aboitiz Power Corp., respectively.
Aboitiz Power Corp.
President and COO Antonio Moraza, in a text message, said the “official COD
[commercial operation date]” of the $1-billion Pagbilao 3 occurred “last March
28.”
In addition to the 570
MW of new capacity, Delola said the government could still tap the state-owned
650-MW Malaya thermal plant, which is a must-run unit, whenever supply is in
danger. “We are not worried for summer.”
However, Delola
acknowledged that unscheduled shutdowns of plants occur, and the 570-MW
additional capacity will not be thrown into the grid for whatever unforeseen
reasons. “Our worry is if the 570 MW will not come in and simultaneously there
will be forced outage incidents.”
In recent years major
power plants did conk out during summer months. In some instances, power
outages occurred. Authorities said these could not be avoided, considering
these are unscheduled plant shutdowns.
Cusi also said “we have
enough supply for this summer, but not enough to support new developments and
infrastructure that we are going for.”
Industry players cited
the need to build more power plants to support the administration’s
“Build, Build, Build” infrastructure program. The private sector heeded.
The problem, however, is the delay in permitting process. As such, by the time
these plants are needed, new capacity is nowhere in sight.
Energy
conservation
While the DOE has
pointed out that power-outage incidents are far from happening, amid enough
reserves and additional capacity, the situation could be different if there are
incidents of unexpected power-plant shutdown and spike in electricity demand.
If such incidents
occur, a red alert notice could be issued by the NGCP. This is triggered when
the power reserve left on the grid is merely regulating reserve, or equivalent
to 4 percent of the current demand. Hence, power interruption may occur.
What can be done to
prevent it? Conserve energy, leaders in the power sector pointed out.
“The NGCP assures its
customers and stakeholders that its transmission facilities are adequate for
the transmission of any and all available power to the grid. At the same time,
we appeal for efficient energy use from commercial and residential consumers to
prevent power shortages.
Simple practices, such
as removing the plugs of appliances from outlets when not in use, keeping the
air conditioners at 25°C, and shifting electricity-heavy household duties, such
as using the washing machine and ironing clothes to off-peak periods,
[before 11 a.m. and after 7 p.m.] will be beneficial to the
entire grid,” the NGCP said.
Energy Undersecretary
Felix William Fuentebella said the agency would be active in its information
drive on energy conservation. “We must always be ready. Consumers must be wary
as to how they could help prevent a spike in demand. We must be aware how to
manage our consumption.”
Meralco, meanwhile,
could activate its Interruptible Load Program (ILP), which is a voluntary,
demand-side management program that allows customers to operate their
generating sets and collectively reduce electricity drawn from the grid when
power interruptions are imminent to ration the limited power supply. “Under the
ERC’s [Energy Regulatory Commission] rules, the ILP may only be triggered when
NGCP declares a red alert and there is impending need to drop loads,” Fernandez
said.
Also, the Senate
recently approved on third and final reading a measure institutionalizing
a framework to advance energy efficiency and conservation practices in the
country, aiming to make the national energy supply more sustainable, stable and
affordable.
The Energy Efficiency
and Conservation Act of 2018 (Senate Bill 1531) lays down a solid foundation
for a comprehensive energy efficiency and conservation policy that would
mandate the efficient and judicious use of energy resources and promote the
development and utilization of both new and alternative sources of
energy-efficient technologies and systems.
“We are helping shape
the consciousness of our consumers, including the government, through a change
in the policy regime regulating energy consumption. The strategies detailed in
this measure are all poised to provide not only savings for the government but
also more money in people’s pockets,” Senate Energy Committee Chairman Sherwin
T. Gatchalian said.
Once ratified, the DOE
shall be the lead government agency tasked to ensure the proper implementation
of this measure.
The industry leaders
have spoken. Conservation is the key, the say. Still, it doesn’t hurt to
prepare for the worst.
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