June 10, 2018 | 9:21 pm By Bienvenido S.
Oplas, Jr.
From 2006 to 2013, the
Mindanao grid had only 1,900 to 2,000 MW of installed power capacity, mostly
sourced from hydropower facilities that provide higher output during the rainy
season but declines during the summer.
As a result, power
shortages lasting several hours a day are experienced during dry spells.
In 2014, the supply
situation improved.
Total installed power
capacity increased to 2,211, rising once more to 2,414 MW in 2015.
Starting 2016, the
situation improved further with capacity reaching 3,162 MW and later rising to
3,559 MW in 2017, with the help mostly of coal power plants. The last two years
showed significant power surpluses that competing power plants were bidding as
low as P2.50/kWh in generation cost.
As of end-2017, coal
power constituted 39% of installed capacity but actual electricity production
was 53% of total because of coal’s reliability and higher capacity factor.
Oil-based plants constituted 26% of installed capacity but actual electricity
output was only 7% because they were peaking plants and were seldom used.
The committed projects
(financing, construction stage) and indicative projects (planning and proposal
stage) are shown below.
The Department of
Energy (DoE) projects that from 2016 to 2040, the Mindanao grid will need
additional capacity of 10,200 MW (6,300 baseload, 3,200 mid-merit, 700
peaking).
Early this month, a
paper was presented at the UP School of Economics (UPSE), entitled
“Cost-Effectiveness of Maximum Renewable Energy Penetration in the Mindanao
Power Grid” by Dr. Sven Teske of the Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF),
University of Technology, Sydney. The event was sponsored by the Institute for
Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) and Mindanao Development Authority.
I was not there so I
asked for a copy from UPSE, nothing came and perhaps ICSC did not give them a
copy either. A friend of a friend sent me a paper by Dr. Teske last year which could
be the basis of his presentation.
The IFS and Dr. Teske
made a weird scenario of Mindanao capacity 6x that of DoE scenario. Their
scenario is based on heavy renewable energy plus storage (RE+S) and RE plus
dispatch (RE+D) and the following assumptions: (1) coal, oil and diesel plants
phased out by 2050, (2) of the 3,200 mid-merit target by 2040, half to come
from gas plants, half from hydro and biomass, (3) significant increase in solar
and wind, (4) increase in storage especially battery (2,491 MW in 2050), and
(5) interconnection with neighboring islands.
The weird ISF paper as
propagated by the ICSC is obviously a product of the solar-wind lobby, partly
by the gas lobby too. Compare what the industry players would actually invest,
410 MW of solar-wind indicative projects, vs what ISF-ICSC lobby of 37,496 MW
or 91.5x larger, which is hallucination and illusion.
Electricity consumers
in Mindanao and elsewhere simply want two things: stable electricity available
24/7 no brownout even for a minute, and cheap or competitive.
Solar and wind are not
cheap.
If they are, we should
have abolished by now the feed-in-tariff (FIT) scheme or guaranteed high price
for 20 years, then the planned mandatory or obligatory renewable portfolio
standards (RPS).
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