By
Bloomberg News - December 23, 2019
Coal consumption is set
to rise in the coming years as growing demand for electricity in developing
countries outpaces a shift to cleaner sources of electricity in industrialized
nations.
While the use of the
most polluting fossil fuel had a historic dip in 2019, the International Energy
Agency (IEA) anticipates steady increases in the next five years.
That means the world
will face a significant challenge in meeting pledges to reduce greenhouse-gas
emissions that cause global warming.
“There are few signs of
change,” the agency wrote in its annual coal report released in Paris last
week. “Despite all the policy changes and announcements, our forecast is very
similar to those we have made over the past few years.”
While this year is on
track for biggest decline ever for coal power, that’s mostly due to high growth
in hydroelectricity and relatively low electricity demand in India and China,
said Carlos Fernandez Alvarez, senior energy analyst at the Paris-based IEA.
Despite the drop,
global coal consumption is likely to rise over the coming years, driven by
demand in India, China and Southeast Asia.
Power generation from
coal rose almost 2 percent in 2018 to reach an all-time high, remaining the world’s
largest source of electricity.
The steady outlook for
coal comes in spite of waning demand in industrialized nations. Europe has set
a goal of zeroing out carbon pollution by the middle of the century, which
would mean drastic reductions for coal.
In the United States,
competition from natural gas has cut into demand for coal, despite President
Donald J. Trump’s vows to revive the industry.
The story is different
in Asia, which will more than make up for reductions elsewhere.
India, with a population
of more than 1.3 billion, will see coal generation increase by 4.6 percent a
year through 2024 to help power its growing economy.
In Southeast Asia, coal
demand will grow more than 5 percent annually.
China, which accounts
for almost half the world’s consumption, will also have modest growth with
usage peaking in 2022.
“How we address this
issue in Asia is critical for the long-term success of any global efforts to
reduce emissions,” Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, wrote in a
foreword to the report.
Any new coal plants
added to meet the growing power demand in these countries will likely be in use
for decades. Even as China’s coal consumption slows and then declines after
2022, emissions from the fuel would need to rapidly decline in order to meet
climate targets.
Under current policies,
the world is set to warm almost 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees
Fahrenheit) by the end of the century. That’s double the rate scientists
say is needed to constrain the worst impacts of climate change.
To prevent those
increases, it would be necessary to use technology that captures and stores
carbon as it’s emitted from power plants, the IEA said, while the technology is
expensive and untested at scale. But with coal here to stay, it may be
the only option to reduce emissions.
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