Manila Bulletin
by Myrna Velasco
August 6, 2014
The ‘power supply shortfall in 2015’ saga being brandished by the Department of Energy (DOE) has been doubted by the House committee on energy, thus, there is no preliminary consensus for them to recommend emergency powers for President Aquino.
In a caucus yesterday, the committee looked at the power supply-demand figures submitted by the Department of Energy (DOE), and it was established that if such would be the lone basis, then the ‘supply shortfall picture’ or the lack of options would not be convincing.
The move of the committee then will be to validate the February 2014 figures submitted by the energy department- wherein it set peak demand forecast for Luzon grid next year at 9,100 megawatts.
Dependable capacity of Luzon power plants, based on DOE data, had been placed at roughly 11,500MW as of 2013; while installed capacity had been at close to 12,800MW.
“The numbers and scenarios being presented by the DOE are confusing … they are saying there’s a shortfall, but their supply-demand data show the reverse,” a source from the House committee on energy has noted.
House Economic Cluster director Lina Mortega who led the discussions at the caucus stressed that “securing emergency powers to address a condition that is projected to happen only in summer of 2015 seems to be a myopic view of looking at the situation.” Instead, this concern should have been addressed by the DOE early on.
Rep. Neri Colmenares of the Makabayan bloc cited that if culled from DOE figures, “even in a tight supply condition, there should be more than enough supply.”
Bayan Muna Representative Carlos Zarate stressed that “there is more to this phantom shortfall than meets the eye,” as his group set warning against the use of the Malampaya funds for the ‘emergency powers’ enforcement.
Another House committee on energy source averred that “we have to validate the figures because when we looked at it, it does not appear that there’s a supply shortfall, so we have to look specifically at the operating levels of all the power plants and what are the capacity additions we can expect by summer next year and 2016.”
It was further indicated that “if all the power plants will operate efficiently and no generating unit will conk out, we are still in a capacity surplus scenario,” the House committee member stressed.
The House body has also been factoring in the capacity additions from new power plants, such as the 100-MW aeroderivate power plant of First Gen Corporation, which is targeted on-line by April next year; as well as those from other projects such as the expanded plant of the Trans-Asia/Ayala group and the entry of renewable energy-based facilities.
“It is only the DOE which is saying that there is a shortfall, but even the players from the private sector are saying that there are options and there are capacities that can be extracted for additional supply to the grid as long as some regulatory and policy issues hobbling their operations are addressed,” it was stressed.
Oppositors of emergency powers, primarily from the Makabayan bloc, are apprehensive on the use of subsidy from the Malampaya fund for additional supply to be contracted on the enforcement of ‘emergency powers’ for the President.
Until now, the propounded counterparty in the leasing arrangements for the gensets – the Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corporation – cannot come up with specific parameters on how the subsidy scheme will be implemented. source
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