Tight electricity supply

By Manila Standard Today | Apr. 04, 2014 at 12:01am

The dry season will reach its peak in May, and so will the demand for electricity.

National Grid Corporation of the Philippines expects a tight power supply in May as more consumers switch on their electric fans and airconditioners to thwart the punishing heat. The operator of the country’s power transmission grid said, however, that supply would be enough to meet the increased demand for electricity during the entire dry season.

While the statement is reassuring, there is no real guarantee that supply will be uninterrupted in the coming months. The excess reserves, or about 1,000 megawatts in Luzon, is hardly reassuring. One major power plant or two may unexpectedly bog down, leading to a sudden shortfall in electricity supply.

Power demand, according to NGCP, is expected to increase to 8,654 megawatts in May from the highest actual peak of 8,305 MW last year.

The demand in Luzon is forecast to hit a high of 8,504 MW in April compared with the available capacity of 9,571 MW. Power demand in Visayas will peak to 1,526 MW in the same month compared with the available capacity of 1,581 MW. Mindanao, however, will have a shortage, with an available capacity of just 1,264 MW against the highest demand of 1,348 MW.

NGCP’s supply and demand forecasts have factored in the scheduled shutdown of three power plants in Luzon from March to May, two in Visayas and one in Mindanao.

Manila Electric Co., meanwhile, said electricity prices in April would increase, after the tight power supply situation in March created upward pressures on the wholesale electricity spot market. All hydro-electric dams, especially in Luzon, generate less power production during the dry season because of reduced water levels. More expensive power stations, like those that are fueled by oil and coal, fill in the reduced output from the dams, leading to higher electricity charges.

Power supply is expected to normalize with the onset of the wet season in July, but the government this early must monitor the behavior of plant operators to prevent a repeat of the excessive charges they initiated in December. source