Mindanao’s unrelenting power crisis

Business Mirror

Published on Thursday, 24 January 2013 20:15

Written by Dean de la Paz

THE problem has festered for some time, scaling up and eventually aggravating to uncontrollable levels in the last two years.

The best solutions were ignored in favor of placebos, palliatives and costly quick fixes.

Rather than rehabilitate facilities that characterized Mindanao’s unique environmentally clean and inexpensive power sources, the government continued to be remiss of its responsibilities. As much as P2.5 billion was approved for rehabilitation. It was never spent. Mindanao’s hydroelectric plants were neither dredged nor de-silted; engines remained un-refurbished; capacities, allowed todeteriorate. The totality of neglect thus drastically shifted dependence to expensive palliatives.

With the refusal to admit the failure of the government to maintain energy capacities, the problem festered, subsequently victimizing industry and development where we needed these the most.

Mindanao was a showcase for a vibrant economy powered by renewable energy. Its Agus hydroelectric complex supplied base-load power at cheaper rates. Spanning several territories, its cascading design allowed revenue distribution among those hosting its infrastructure.

As a government facility, for as long as the government kept up its end, Mindanao could, indeed, fulfill its promises. Unfortunately, the bureaucracy had other agenda.

In the government, competence is rare; selflessness, even rarer. Some recognized predatory opportunities where a victimized and wretched constituency surrenders to high costs for electricity availability. Desperation knows no limits.

This need not be so. All it takes is genuine concern, a fresh perspective and a good dose of intellectual honesty. Fortunately, a rightfully concerned non-Mindanaoan such as San Juan Rep. Joseph Victor (JV) Ejercito recognized the urgency of comprehensive solutions and has astutely pinpointed the core of the problem.

Ejercito correctly focused on the Agus complex’s series of seven plants as the basis for a solution. With other fossil-fired facilities, Agus currently represents 35.96 percent of Mindanao’s installed capacity. The complex has a nameplate capacity of 727.10 megawatts (MW). However, as of 2012, due to state neglect, only 490 megawatts was available with individual utility ratios falling as low as 50 percent.

Neglect created the problem, and addressing neglect is where solutions lie. The cause of Mindanao’s power crisis is inadequate dependable base-load capacities caused by the government’s disregard of necessary maintenance protocols that sustain inexpensive power.

The importance of independent perception, the boldness to challenge the unacceptable including the powers-that-be, Ejercito’s freshness of perspective and clarity in pinpointing root causes cannot be underestimated.

Ejercito did not mince words. He said Mindanao’s debilitating outages could have been prevented had the government rehabilitated two years ago when money was available.

For two years nothing was done to address root causes. Neglect not only perpetuates problems, it also attracts costly palliatives. Officials offered only pricey Band-Aid solutions. Never mind that these condemned Mindanao to endless destitution that provides secessionists their foundations. In war-torn Mindanao, how can we sue for peace, much less prosperity, when basic needs cannot be met?

Ejercito’s call to focus on sustainable solutions to energize Mindanao cannot be timelier. Mindanao’s tuna industry, a critical economic driver, will resume operations by March. Unfortunately, this will be met with state-spawned unproductivity.

Power shortfalls are expected up to 2019. As much as 10 megawatts is scheduled to be shed from Zamboanga City. Mindanao’s reserves remain below grid code limits. Two weeks ago 189 MW was shorn off the grid. That is the equivalent of a major base-load plant tripping.

The research supports Ejercito’s imperative. For the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, “Based on the consolidated forecasts of distribution utilities submitted for the Philippine Distribution Development Plan 2010–2019, Mindanao peak demand could reach 1,428 MW and 1,823 MW in 2019. Given the reserve requirement, the total generating capacity requirements are therefore 1,728 MW in 2013 and 2,206 MW in 2019, but the dependable capacity now is only 1,616 MW.”

Businessmen likewise mirror Ejercito’s focus. For the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry, hydroelectric plants “should be Mindanao’s core energy source to be complemented [only] with diesel-based reserve power facilities.” They noted Agus “had the potential to “produce up to 800 MW for about nine months, instead of only six months of the year, and a potential year-round dependable capacity of up to 350 MW.”

Unfortunately, up to 2018, only two hydroelectric plants with a combined capacity of 22 MW are in the pipeline, while over 800 MW of expensive fossil-fired power are planned.

The mix is important. Do the math. Rehabilitated, and given the end of droughts due to climate change, hydroelectric plants remain Mindanao’s best bets. Agus can produce power at a third of what it costs in Manila. Add fossil-fired plants for peak periods, work those into a level charge to account for seasonality and the chemistry reduces Mindanao’s generation costs to half of what Manila pays.

Ejercito’s plea makes sense. Should we heed his call, Mindanao may yet be the land of fulfilled promises.    source