By Marvin Sy (The Philippine Star) Updated October 12, 2010 12:00 AM Comments (1)  |
MANILA, Philippines - Energy Secretary Jose Rene Almendras admitted yesterday that there will be a power supply shortage of at least 300 megawatts (MW) in Luzon next year because of inadequate generation and expected increase in demand.
During the hearing on the budget of the Department of Energy (DOE) at the Senate yesterday, Almendras said that both Luzon and Mindanao would continue to experience supply shortages next year unless this is addressed right away.
In the case of Luzon, he said that the reports of energy problems emerging two to three years from now were not accurate because “the truth is next year we will already have a shortage.”
“We will be short – by our estimates – by at least 300 MW next year. The reality is the 300 MW is within the reserve area, which basically means the shortage of 300 becomes a problem if one of the plants’ generation falls by more than 300 MW,” Almendras said.
He pointed out that the figures were based on the assumption that all of the hydroelectric power plants and dams would reach their normal levels this year.
He said the statements made by power industry players about the power shortage in Luzon going to as high as 400 to 500 MW next year would be true if the predicted La Niña phenomenon would not be able to bring in the levels of water that the hydro power plants need.
The generation level has not improved and according to Almendras, the peak demand in Luzon is expected to go up to 7,900 MW from 7,600 MW this year.
The energy secretary said that the DOE expects another 300 MW shortage in 2012 and the situation would only ease up in 2014 when a new power plant is commissioned.
However, he said that by 2015, the shortage would again go up to 450 to 500 MW.
“We want to put a realistic picture that we do need a lot of generation capacity,” Almendras said.
He said that the immediate and fastest solution to the problem in Luzon would be for the private power plant operators to rehabilitate their facilities in order to increase their generation capacities.
“Again, much as these are privatized... I’ve been writing and writing and meeting them, pushing them to start the rehabilitation, and some of them have already started cooperating,” he added.
Another solution relayed by Almendras was for the Visayas grid to supply Luzon with its excess power generation.
“In the past it was Luzon pushing power to Visayas by about 80 to 100 MW when allowed. With the Visayas capacity, with the new coal-fired plants in Cebu and Panay coming on stream, the view is we can push power from Leyte back to Luzon,” he said.
He said the projected seven percent growth rate of Cebu would mean that the excess supply would only be up to 2014 or 2015.
In the case of Mindanao, which is still experiencing rotating blackouts at this time, Almendras said that the situation is “more bleak than anywhere else.”
He noted that the projected supply shortfalls of 50, 50, 200 and 100 MW from 2011 to 2014 were based on the assumption that the rainfall pattern would be the same every year.
But because of climate change and how it affected the country this year with the long dry spell, Almendras said that it would be difficult to rely on these projections. “Ideally, it would be perfect if we had at least 300 MW of non-hydro generating capacity in Mindanao to buffer us during the time when we have El Niño incidents. Ideally it should even be 500 MW of non-hydro generation,” he said.
He also noted that the blackouts in Mindanao were caused by technical and legal problems, the former being the 60 MW load curtailment on Davao Light last February.
While this was unavoidable, Almendras said the residents of Mindanao were angry because they were aware that there was undispatched power from the hydro plants and the diesel barges that could have made up for the region’s supply issues.
“The reason why the National Grid Corporation does not dispatch all of the 700 MW capable of being produced in the hydro plants is because they need a portion of it as their spinning reserve for currents to mitigate the fluctuations,” he said. Almendras explained that the diesel-fired barges cannot legally dispatch its additional capacity if no power plant goes offline for more than eight hours at any time.
In order to address the situation, he said the DOE will be issuing an order within the week “to address the definition of these power definitions of what is ancillary, what is backup, what is spinning reserve.”
During the hearing on the budget of the Department of Energy (DOE) at the Senate yesterday, Almendras said that both Luzon and Mindanao would continue to experience supply shortages next year unless this is addressed right away.
In the case of Luzon, he said that the reports of energy problems emerging two to three years from now were not accurate because “the truth is next year we will already have a shortage.”
“We will be short – by our estimates – by at least 300 MW next year. The reality is the 300 MW is within the reserve area, which basically means the shortage of 300 becomes a problem if one of the plants’ generation falls by more than 300 MW,” Almendras said.
He pointed out that the figures were based on the assumption that all of the hydroelectric power plants and dams would reach their normal levels this year.
He said the statements made by power industry players about the power shortage in Luzon going to as high as 400 to 500 MW next year would be true if the predicted La Niña phenomenon would not be able to bring in the levels of water that the hydro power plants need.
The generation level has not improved and according to Almendras, the peak demand in Luzon is expected to go up to 7,900 MW from 7,600 MW this year.
The energy secretary said that the DOE expects another 300 MW shortage in 2012 and the situation would only ease up in 2014 when a new power plant is commissioned.
However, he said that by 2015, the shortage would again go up to 450 to 500 MW.
“We want to put a realistic picture that we do need a lot of generation capacity,” Almendras said.
He said that the immediate and fastest solution to the problem in Luzon would be for the private power plant operators to rehabilitate their facilities in order to increase their generation capacities.
“Again, much as these are privatized... I’ve been writing and writing and meeting them, pushing them to start the rehabilitation, and some of them have already started cooperating,” he added.
Another solution relayed by Almendras was for the Visayas grid to supply Luzon with its excess power generation.
“In the past it was Luzon pushing power to Visayas by about 80 to 100 MW when allowed. With the Visayas capacity, with the new coal-fired plants in Cebu and Panay coming on stream, the view is we can push power from Leyte back to Luzon,” he said.
Mindanao situation is bleak
However, Almendras noted that the growth of the urban centers in the Visayas, particularly Cebu, would play a factor in how much excess capacity is generated in the region.He said the projected seven percent growth rate of Cebu would mean that the excess supply would only be up to 2014 or 2015.
In the case of Mindanao, which is still experiencing rotating blackouts at this time, Almendras said that the situation is “more bleak than anywhere else.”
He noted that the projected supply shortfalls of 50, 50, 200 and 100 MW from 2011 to 2014 were based on the assumption that the rainfall pattern would be the same every year.
But because of climate change and how it affected the country this year with the long dry spell, Almendras said that it would be difficult to rely on these projections. “Ideally, it would be perfect if we had at least 300 MW of non-hydro generating capacity in Mindanao to buffer us during the time when we have El Niño incidents. Ideally it should even be 500 MW of non-hydro generation,” he said.
He also noted that the blackouts in Mindanao were caused by technical and legal problems, the former being the 60 MW load curtailment on Davao Light last February.
While this was unavoidable, Almendras said the residents of Mindanao were angry because they were aware that there was undispatched power from the hydro plants and the diesel barges that could have made up for the region’s supply issues.
“The reason why the National Grid Corporation does not dispatch all of the 700 MW capable of being produced in the hydro plants is because they need a portion of it as their spinning reserve for currents to mitigate the fluctuations,” he said. Almendras explained that the diesel-fired barges cannot legally dispatch its additional capacity if no power plant goes offline for more than eight hours at any time.
In order to address the situation, he said the DOE will be issuing an order within the week “to address the definition of these power definitions of what is ancillary, what is backup, what is spinning reserve.”
No comments:
Post a Comment