ENERGY officials warned on Monday of a looming power-supply shortage by next year owing to inadequate generating capacity in the face of expected higher demand.
Appearing at a Senate finance sub-committee hearing, Energy Secretary Rene Almendras clarified that earlier estimates projecting that the country would have power-supply problems in two to three years yet was “inaccurate.”
“That is not very accurate. The truth is next year we will already have a shortage. We will be short, by our estimates, by at least 300 megaWatts next year,” Almendras told senators, adding that while the 300 mW is within the reserve area, it could become a problem if a power plant with more than 300 mW generating capacity breaks down.
He also recalled that power-industry players earlier estimated that the projected shortage may be more than 300 mW “and may actually be in the vicinity of 400 mW to 500 mW [which is true] if the predicted La Niña
will not bring in the water that the hydropower plants will need.”
will not bring in the water that the hydropower plants will need.”
According to Almendras, the energy department is projecting peak demand next year at 7,900 mW. “This year, at the height of summer, there was very little supply and the demand at its peak was actually at 7,600 mW.”
For Luzon, he said the shortage problem is projected at 300 mW a year from 2011 to 2013. But the good news, he added, is that there will be a new power plant that will be commissioned by that time.
“We want to put a realistic picture that we do need a lot of generation capacity and now the question is how do you solve the 300 mW next year and the 300 mW in 2012. There are plants that were privatized already, that have not yet been brought up to their original installed capacity,” Almendras said.
He cited as example the Masinloc power plant which, when it was privatized, was only producing about 300 mW. “Now that they have completely rehabilitated and refurbished it, it is now capable of 600 mW, and they can even push it to 620 mW.”
Unfortunately, he admitted, the other state-owned power plants that were already privatized were not being rehabilitated as fast as they want.
“Some of them are looking at cycles of about 12 months, some of them are 18 months.”
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