Power supply critical starting next year

Manila Bulletin
July 22, 2014

For power supply especially in the biggest grid and economic center of Luzon, it will get worse before it gets better and the peak of blackouts may happen next year and at the tail-end of Aquino administration in 2016.

Based on studies, reserve capacities during peak demand months of summer for Luzon may just hover at 500 to 800 megawatts, way below the required reserve level for an electricity system to operate seamlessly.

If gauged from recent developments, even the low demand periods are already afflicted with rotating brownouts. Such then raised worries that the dilemmas of power supply may hit unwarranted proportions on higher demand months.

Finally, Energy Secretary Carlos Jericho L. Petilla is now acknowledging the “very critical situation” in the country’s electricity supply and that is also giving him leverage to recommend emergency powers for President Aquino.

He indicated that in his meeting with the Philippine Independent Power Producers Association Inc. (PIPPA) on Tuesday, the power generators can no longer give assurance of capacity additions between now until early part of 2016.

Petilla stressed that if national emergency on power supply would not be declared, the option for the public will be “brownouts in 2015, because that will be inevitable.”

“I just talked to PIPPA and I told them, if you have capacity to show, then bring out those capacities now… but even them, they cannot guarantee.”

He further noted “the power generators cannot commit because they still have issues with secondary cap (with the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market) and even with permitting… but if we have emergency powers, we can cut short most of the processes because there is really an emergency.”

The energy chief added “if there are people who are not inclined to this, the only thing I can say is: I am willing to sit down with them and listen to their options.”

This current administration may already lack time putting up the “quick fixes” to save President Aquino from being tagged the “prince of darkness” as he steps down from Malacañang in June 2016.

Many private companies are advancing their power projects to construction, but their commercial operation may not come early enough to avert the anticipated blackouts of 2015 and 2016.

The remedial measure being pushed by various quarters will be for President Aquino to be given “emergency powers” to solve the apparent power supply crisis.

And while Petilla is open to the idea, he noted that Congress must identify the source of budget needed for the setting up of off-the-shelf or fast-track power facilities. (Myrna Velasco) source