April 25, 2018 | 9:31 pm
By Krista Angela M. Montealegre National
Correspondent
RENEWABLE SOURCES can
supply a majority of the country’s power requirements by 2040 if the government
can implement alternative energy development strategies, according to the
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
The institute, which
assessed the feasibility of various policy scenarios, found that the imposition
of carbon taxes and subsidies for renewable power will boost the share of
renewable energy to as much as 60% by 2040.
The diversification of
the energy mix will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by up to 50% at a long-term
cost that “is not higher than maintaining current high levels of dependency on
fossil fuels,” the institute said.
“The Philippines’
current energy supply mix must be diversified to minimize import dependency on
fossil fuels and meet the country’s energy needs,” Md. Alam Hossain Mondal, a
researcher at IFPRI and lead author of the study, was quoted in a statement as saying.
“Without
diversification, fossil fuel dependency will grow sharply, by an average rate
of 7% per year, and CO2 emissions could mount from 43 million tons in 2014 to
144 million tons by 2040,” he added.
Imposing a $10 tax per
ton of carbon emitted by 2020 and an additional $10 each decade can bring down
power generated by coal-based energy from 2,243 terawatt hours (TWh) under the
current trajectory to 1,553 TWh by 2040.
In another scenario,
the government could provide subsidies ranging from three to six centavos per
kilowatt-hour that will add over 1,000 TWh to the renewable power sector during
2014-2040, which may produce a 35% drop in coal-based power usage.
The carbon tax and
renewables subsidy scenarios would lead to a decrease in the share of energy
generated by coal-based power plants from about 32% in 2014 to 20% and 17% by
2040, respectively.
Developing energy
generation based on new, renewable sources would entail some costs, but
researchers noted that those costs are outweighed by the benefits of
diversification and reduced greenhouse gases.
The carbon-tax model
would lead to “marginal” increases in electricity prices and subsidizing
renewables would require an investment of $15.6 billion.
A diversified energy
supply can help bolster capacity and ease many of the developmental challenges
posed by energy instability, which include high prices, under-investment in
generation, reduced self-sufficiency, and expected high levels of greenhouse
gas emissions.
“Each of the
alternative policy options we examined has implications for energy costs,
energy requirements, and the environment,” Mr. Mondal said.
“All these
considerations must be weighed carefully to create a plan for investing in the
Philippine power sector for long-term sustainability.”
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