January 18, 2018
POWER
SUPPLY in Luzon is expected to face constraints during the dry season because
of the forecast increase in electricity demand resulting from rising
temperatures, privately owned grid operator National Grid Corp. of the
Philippines (NGCP) said on Wednesday.
Still, the grid
operator assured its customers and stakeholders that it has enough reserve
power and it will be operating under normal conditions.
“We have sufficient
reserves based on the capacity that we have,” said NGCP spokesperson Cynthia P.
Alabanza in a press conference at the power grid operator’s head office in
Quezon City.
For 2018, NGCP expects
power demand in Luzon to peak at 10,561 megawatts (MW), up 5.04% from a year
earlier, when the main island breached for the first time the 10,000-MW mark.
Luzon is the biggest power user with its peak demand more than five times that
of the Visayas and Mindanao.
Ermelindo
R. Bugaoisan, Jr., NGCP manager of systems and standards, said despite the
forecast increase in Luzon’s power demand, the area will be “covered” by
existing supply, which includes power plants that are expected to come online
within the year.
He said the power
reserve in Luzon will be “thinnest” around May at 1,432 MW.
“We are required to
come up with 4% of the demand for the regulating [reserve],” he said, referring
to the standard operating requirement to maintain a balance between available
capacity and the system demand.
The regulating reserve,
which also answers small variations during normal operations, is ideally
equivalent to 4% of the demand for the hour.
Mr. Bugaoisan also said
NGCP is covered for its contingency reserve requirement, which is allocated to
immediately answer any reduction in supply when the largest power generating
unit online — the 647-MW coal-fired power plant in Sual, Pangasinan — fails to
deliver.
The operator also
maintains a dispatchable reserve — equivalent to the capacity of the second
biggest operating plant, the second 647-MW unit of the Sual plant — that is
readily available to replenish lost contingency reserve.
“Assuming for Luzon,
the 4% is around 400 MW [of the peak demand] and then the highest online is 600
[MW] and second highest is also 600 [MW], so that’s around 1,600 [MW]… Based on
the projection, the 1,600 MW is covered,” Mr. Bugaoisan said.
For the Visayas, NGCP
expects power demand this year to peak at 2,143 MW, an increase of 8.51% from
the previous year’s 1,975 MW. Reserve power is expected to be thinnest at 400
MW in the fourth quarter.
Mindanao is expected to
post the biggest growth in terms of peak demand at 17.27% to 2,064 MW. Its
thinnest reserve level is expected at 1,133 MW, also in the last quarter.
Ms. Alabanza said:
“Based on the facts as they stand now, we see no red alert status coming on for
the year.”
NGCP
issues a “red alert” notice when the contingency reserve is zero or a
generation deficiency exists. It issues a “yellow alert” notice when the total
of all reserves is less than the capacity of the largest plant online, which
for the Luzon grid, is 647 MW.
“As far as we’re
concerned we’re only presenting what we know for a fact today, that’s why the
caveat is, it would change throughout the year depending on how the committed
plants progress, any changes in the demand profile or other unforeseen
circumstances — we don’t know the weather, how it will be this year,” Ms.
Alabanza said. — Victor V. Saulon
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